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January 7, 2009


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Realty Viewpoint: More Signs Housing Nearing Bottom

The litany of bad news this week hits all sectors of the economy, with consumers hit hardest. Analysts have long cited a combination of pressures on consumers: falling home prices, rising food and energy prices, the credit crunch and a deteriorating labor market.

Wholesale prices, what goods cost before they reach retail shelves, shot up 1.4 percent in May, says the Labor Department. That's the fastest growth in prices since last November.

Home prices have receded while consumer prices for food and gas have doubled since 2004. The negatively-biased Case-Shiller index says home prices in April were down over 17 percent since reaching their peak in 2005.

The stock market has lost trillions in gains. The DOW has dropped from over 14,000 points to below 12,000 for the first time since 2006.

The only thing that isn't down is unemployment, up to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent this year.

People are paying more money for basics, they're losing value in their homes, they're not able to borrow, and their jobs are shaky.

No wonder consumer confidence is at its fifth lowest rate ever. The Conference Board index says consumer confidence is at 50.4, the lowest reading since the recession of 1992.

What that means is it's the perfect time to buy.

While pundits have been calling for a bottom for months, the fundamentals suggest we're close, because the bad news taken as a whole is worse than it seems.

Wholesale and retail prices are up on oil speculation. Seventy percent of futures traders in oil are speculators. What goes up will come down again.

Home prices have receded 4.6 percent from April 07 to April 08, says the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That's a far cry from Case-Shiller's findings for 20 U.S. metros.

During Black Monday of 1987, the Dow lost 22 percent of its value, so we have a ways to go to match that.

During the recession of the early 90s, unemployment was two percent higher than it is now, so this housing slump is not job-driven, but speculation-driven.

Buyers who have good credit have access to the widest selection in homes since the '90s. They have interest rates three points below the average.

According to the housing reports, housing is still declining, but the pace of declines is slowing, which suggest we're near the bottom.

And here's the good news. Harvard's Joint Center For Housing Studies says that although recessions exacerbate housing downturns, there's usually a quick recovery.

So buyers -- start your engines.

Published: June 25, 2008

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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Review - Honors

In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.




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